How often have you wondered what the future will bring? What if we could learn to better understand – and shape – this future? This is precisely the aim of futures literacy. This is the only way to remain resilient and innovative in the long term in a fast-moving and uncertain world.
What is futures literacy?
Futures literacy is the ability to consciously and creatively imagine different possible futures. It is not just about trying to predict the future, but also about recognizing and questioning your own assumptions about the future.
The term was coined by UNESCO, which has been promoting this very future literacy in its role as a global laboratory of ideas since 2012. The idea behind it: People have always told each other stories about the future. And it is precisely these stories that influence how we act today.
In the past, it was mostly about predicting the future (like fortune-tellers or astrology), but futures literacy goes further: it is about seeing the future as something that we can shape and actively influence.
An example: a company wants to develop new products. Instead of just analyzing current trends, the team imagines various possible futures:
- Future A: Customers prefer environmentally friendly products.
- Future B: New technologies replace many current products.
- Future C: An economic crisis changes consumer behavior.
With these scenarios, the company can plan better and react flexibly to changes.
Why is futures literacy important?
Today, futures literacy is more important than ever. Our world is becoming increasingly fast-paced, complex and uncertain. There are many reasons for this:
Rapid technological changes
New technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics and renewable energies are changing our everyday lives, our working world and society at a rapid pace.
The impact of these technologies is often difficult to predict. Futures literacy helps us to recognize various possible developments and react flexibly to new trends.
Example: 20 years ago, few would have predicted that smartphones would have such a strong impact on our lives. Companies that were able to look into the future and imagine these developments back then, such as Apple and Google, were better prepared for this change.
Complex global challenges
Issues such as climate change, pandemics, migration and geopolitical tensions are complex and unpredictable. Traditional planning approaches based on fixed assumptions reach their limits here. Futures literacy allows us to think through a variety of scenarios and better prepare for surprises and crises.
Example: The COVID-19 pandemic has shown how quickly the world can change. Countries and companies that were more flexible and forward-looking were able to respond to the crisis more quickly.
Increasing uncertainty and instability
Economic and political systems are increasingly unstable. Financial crises, political unrest and global supply chain problems are just some of the uncertainties we face.
Futures Literacy helps us not to fall into fear or panic, but to act proactively and be prepared for various possible future scenarios.
Example: In the field of climate policy, more and more cities and regions are using scenario planning to be prepared for future environmental disasters instead of just reacting to current data.
Innovation and adaptability are essential
Companies, organizations and individuals must constantly adapt to new circumstances in order to remain competitive and be successful in the long term.
Futures Literacy encourages creative thinking and innovation by teaching us to break through existing patterns of thinking and find new, unconventional solutions.
Example: Start-ups are often more successful than established companies because they are more open to different future scenarios and can adapt their strategies quickly.
Sustainability and long-term thinking
Our society often has a short-term focus, be it in business (quarterly figures), in politics (election cycles) or in everyday life (rapid consumption).
Futures Literacy teaches us to think more long-term and to consider the impact of our decisions on future generations. This is crucial for finding sustainable solutions to global challenges.
Example: The movement for sustainable development (UN SDG goals) relies heavily on future-oriented thinking. Through futures literacy, we can actively consider what a sustainable world could look like and what steps are needed to get there.
The positive effects of futures literacy according to UNESCO:
Discovery
Futures literacy promotes an open and curious approach to the future. It enables people to look beyond current trends and discover new possibilities, ideas and innovations.
Leadership
Futures literacy strengthens leadership skills by helping managers to anticipate various possible future scenarios and develop a clear vision. Managers learn to deal better with uncertainty and lead their teams through complex changes.
Strategy
Futures Literacy supports the development of flexible and resilient strategies that are prepared for different future scenarios.
Agility
If people remain open to new information and flexible ways of thinking, this promotes agility. Instead of clinging to rigid assumptions, “future shaping competence” enables rapid adaptation to change.
Confidence
The ability to anticipate and reflect on different future scenarios increases confidence in one’s own decision-making processes. People feel better prepared, even if the future is uncertain.
Knowledge
Futures literacy supports the gathering and understanding of knowledge about possible developments and trends. It helps to recognize complex relationships and to develop a deeper understanding of the forces that influence the future.
Resilience
If people are able to anticipate different scenarios and be prepared for change, this strengthens their own resilience. This creates an understanding that there is not just one predictable future, but many possible futures.
The 10 sub-competencies of futures literacy
UNESCO defines 10 sub-competencies of futures literacy. These are important skills that should help people to better deal with an uncertain future and actively shape it.
1. Innovation
What does this mean?
Innovation is the ability to develop new ideas and solutions that go beyond existing thought patterns. Being creative and finding new ways to overcome challenges.
Why is this important?
Innovative thinking allows us to react to unforeseen changes and discover new opportunities.
Example: A company develops a new business model that targets future customer needs before they become visible on the market.
2. Agility
What does this mean?
Agility refers to the ability to adapt quickly and flexibly to change. Being agile means not sticking rigidly to plans, but reacting dynamically to new developments.
Why is this important?
In a world that is constantly changing, agility is crucial in order to remain competitive and take advantage of opportunities.
Example: A team adapts its project strategy at short notice after new market trends emerge.
3. Discovery
What does this mean?
Discovery stands for the urge to explore and learn new things. Being open to new perspectives and actively engaging with unknown future possibilities.
Why is this important?
A spirit of discovery helps us to think outside the box and recognize unexpected opportunities and risks.
Example: An organization conducts regular foresight workshops to discover new trends and technologies that could impact the business.
4. Confidence
What does this mean?
Confidence describes the trust in one’s own ability to be prepared for the future. Gaining certainty, even if the future is uncertain.
Why is this important?
Strong self-confidence helps us to act proactively instead of being paralyzed by uncertainty.
Example: An entrepreneur starts a new project because he trusts that he is flexible enough to respond to future challenges.
5. Choice
What does this mean?
Choice is the ability to make conscious decisions based on a wide range of possible future scenarios. Seeing the future as something that can be shaped and actively using choices.
Why is this important?
Good decisions are the basis for successfully shaping the future.
Example: A city administration decides to invest in sustainable infrastructure in order to prevent future environmental problems.
6. Competence
What does this mean?
Capability describes the ability to acquire the necessary skills and knowledge to be prepared for different possible futures.
Why is this important?
The broader our competence base, the better we are able to react to unforeseen situations.
Example: A team trains itself in new technologies in order to be able to help shape future innovations in its own field.
7. Leadership strength
What does this mean?
Leadership means having the ability to inspire and guide other people to jointly develop and implement a vision for the future.
Why is this important?
Good leadership is crucial to provide guidance and set a common direction in times of uncertainty.
Example: A CEO develops a long-term vision for the company and mobilizes the entire team to implement it.
8. Knowledge
What does this mean?
Knowing refers to the deep understanding of trends, patterns and systems that can influence the future. Gathering and analyzing knowledge about different possible developments.
Why is this important?
Without in-depth knowledge, we cannot make informed decisions or prepare effectively for the future.
Example: An organization conducts extensive market research to better understand how customer needs might change.
9. Strategy development
What does this mean?
Strategy means developing plans that are prepared for different future scenarios. To plan flexibly and have strategies that are adaptable and future-oriented.
Why is this important?
Strategic thinking helps us not only to react to current challenges, but also to pursue long-term goals.
Example: A company creates several strategic plans that are designed for different market developments in order to be able to react quickly.
10. Resilience
What does this mean?
Resilience is the ability to remain resilient in times of crisis and to recover quickly. It involves learning from setbacks and adapting to new conditions.
Why Is It Important?
Resilience is crucial for thriving in an uncertain world and maintaining long-term stability.
Example:
After a crisis, an organization analyzes its mistakes and adjusts its processes to be better prepared for the future.
The Four Phases of a Futures Lab
Futures Labs are workshops or processes aimed at enhancing the ability to anticipate and shape the future. They are based on methodical approaches designed to help participants explore various futures, question assumptions, and develop strategies. These labs typically consist of four interdependent phases:
1. Tacit to Explicit (From Implicit to Explicit Knowledge)
This phase focuses on making implicit assumptions and beliefs about the future explicit. Often, our views of the future are subconscious or unspoken. Participants are encouraged to articulate and reflect on these assumptions.
Goal of the Phase:
To recognize and reflect on one’s often subconscious expectations and assumptions about the future.
Activities:
- Participants share and question their views on the future.
- Tools such as “Anticipation Mapping” are used to visualize expectations and assumptions.
Example:
A team writes down expected developments over the next 10 years (e.g., technological advancements, climate changes) and reflects on why these assumptions exist.
2. Reframe (Rethink and Shift Perspectives)
Reframing challenges participants to question and transform their current ways of thinking and perspectives. The goal is to develop new, alternative views of the future that go beyond conventional expectations.
Goal of the Phase:
To broaden horizons and break existing thought patterns, enabling the discovery of new possibilities.
Activities:
- Participants work with scenarios that diverge significantly from their current expectations.
- Techniques like “What If?” questions are used to create alternative futures.
Example:
After documenting their initial assumptions, the team explores how the future might unfold if a disruptive technology (e.g., quantum computing) becomes reality much faster than anticipated.
3. New Questions
This phase focuses on formulating new questions arising from the shift in perspective. It emphasizes rethinking previous questions and developing open-ended ones that address newly recognized possibilities and uncertainties.
Goal of the Phase:
To enhance the quality of questions about the future, thereby gaining new insights and identifying actionable options.
Activities:
- Brainstorming questions inspired by new perspectives.
- Discussing which questions are missing from current debates and which new ones could drive future development.
Example:
Instead of asking, “How can we improve our current business model?” the team now asks, “What new business models could emerge in a world without traditional employment contracts?”
4. Next Steps
The final phase involves defining concrete actions and next steps based on insights gained in the previous phases. Participants plan how to turn these insights into practical actions.
Goal of the Phase:
To plan the implementation of insights and take specific actions to explore and shape the future.
Activities:
- Developing a concept and action plan that includes short-, medium-, and long-term measures.
- Assigning responsibilities and determining how progress will be monitored.
Example:
The team decides to launch a pilot project testing the impact of flexible working hours to prepare for future changes in the workplace.
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